Analytics, Moneyball, Metrics…..

The bottom line in professional sport is and always will be the scoreboard. Two numbers compared to each other when the contest has concluded. Pretty simple. Not too confusing.

Attention: NFL Analytics Power Rankings Below

What is analytics? A few definitions:

1) The method of logical analysis or the field of data analysis.

2) The discovery, interpretation, and communication of meaningful patterns in data.

Described as especially valuable in areas rich with recorded information, it relies on the simultaneous application of statistics, computer programming and operations research to quantify performance. Analytics often favors data visualization to communicate insight.

Each day, NFL teams are trying to apply analytics to on-field data in an attempt to predict and improve their output – the scoreboard. This gets into the areas of both predictive and reflective analytics. They study past historical data to research potential trends, analyze the effects of certain decisions or events and to evaluate the performance. Analytics is multidisciplinary. It includes math and statistics, models to analyze data and visualizations as a means of communication. The insights are used to guide decision-making and help recommend courses of action.

Do analytics have the attention of teams, fans and ownership? Yes, but it is the “how” they are attempting to leverage it that catches my attention. Mike Tanier’s recent article at Bleacher Report.com brings a few insights to the table.

The key issue is the interface between the coaches, executives and the analytics. How do these groups communicate and do they trust each other? If there is an advantage to be had, people will do it. If the road looks as if it is going to be bumpy and long – it probably will not be traveled by all involved. The road can look that way due to the barriers of communication and personalities. Analytics people are dominantly left brained while coaches are dominantly right brained (more on this at the end)

Now presenting…..

POWER RANKINGS FOR NFL ANALYTICS DEPARTMENT (version 1.0)

Teams, Leadership and Comments: Rankings based on personnel, team comments and level of influence.

Note: Research for this list has revealed many clubs that no longer have people with a title of analytics. Examples include the Packers, Seahawks and Ravens. Others have just formally begun the process – most recently the Colts. Do enjoy and this will show up again as more information unfolds during training camp.

1) New England Patriots: Ernie Adams

Conducts football research, including statistical evaluations, since 2000. The best football background of any player in this area, Adams spent more than 10 years as a coach and pro personnel director. Lives in the shadows – think 2007 Spygate scandal. (More here)

The late Browns owner Art Modell notably quipped “I’ll pay anyone here $10,000 if they can tell me what Ernie Adams does.” He does good work and it matters to the Patriots. Industry leader that we all know little about. Exactly how the Patriots want it.

2) Denver Broncos: Mitch Tanney

Reigning Super Bowl champs – you get instant cred in this pole especially if you are on the headset with the head coach during games. Can an “analytics guy” put himself in a better position? Not really. Rising star who could ride this current wave far… very far. He is a football guy with a degree in mathematics.

Kubiak: “I’ve got Mitch out there with me. If we’re moving the ball or we’re doing formatting, I’ve got Mitch with me because he’s going to be on the headset, so we’re trying to practice. Everything’s going to happen on game day.”

From Broncos.com: A former quarterback at Monmouth College, Tanney was named the 2005 Midwest Conference Offensive Player of the Year as a senior in addition to finishing as a runner-up for Division III Player of the Year.

From 2006-09, Tanney worked as an assistant coach at Monmouth while continuing his playing career in various professional football leagues (AFL, AF2, IFL, Swedish SuperSeries).

Tanney graduated from Monmouth Summa Cum Laude in 2006 with a Bachelor of Arts in Mathematics and Spanish. He received his MBA from the University of Iowa in 2011.

Elway before hiring Tanney: “I’m a numbers guy. I know the power they have, but we’re still trying to develop a role for it. I have a lot of résumés from people who want to help us put that together, but I would say we understand it can be a tool and we’re trying to develop what it will be and what it will do for us.”

3) Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Frazier

Title: Statistical Analysis Coordinator.

Mike Frazier finished his third year as the Chiefs Statistical Analysis Coordinator. He arrived in Kansas City in 2013 after spending 10 seasons in the same role with the Philadelphia Eagles. He assists Head Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs coaching staff with player statistics, situational analysis, as well as team and league-wide trends.

Frazier joined the Eagles following his graduation from The College of Wooster in Wooster, Ohio (1999-03). While completing his undergraduate degree, Frazier held internships with Smith Barney and Wachovia Securities. He also interned with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2002 where he worked with Reid, Chiefs Spread Game Analyst/Special Projects coach Brad Childress and a number of current Chiefs assistant coaches who served on the Eagles’ coaching staff.

4) Cleveland Browns: Paul DePodesta and company

Title: Chief Strategy Officer

All eyes on Cleveland. This is the litmus test for full organizational buy-in. Back in January, the Browns hired analytics guru Paul DePodesta away from the Mets and named him Chief Strategy Officer.

Mix in an impatient owner Jimmy Haslam and a new head coach Hue Jackson. When Jackson was hired this offseason, he became the team’s fourth head coach in the five years Haslam has owned the team. Hardly a “build for the long-term” mentality.

The concern from those in the analytics world is that if the Browns fail the rest of the league has their justification for staying away.

New coach Hue Jackson said during the combine that analytics is “not going to drive our organization,” Like many coaches in the profession, Jackson is a go-by-his-gut coach – the exact opposite of what DePodesta represents. This should be interesting.

5) 49ers: Paraag Marathe

Title: Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President of Football Operations.

Paraag Marathe got his break with the 49ers in 2001 when coach Bill Walsh and exec Terry Donahue hired him based on his work as part of a consulting team providing a data-oriented approach to the draft. He went all the way to team president in 2013 but has been demoted late in 2015. Still must think he will have a chance to work with Chip and innovate. Great minds rise in this industry – his rise is impressive and his fall may just be temporary.

6) Oakland Raiders: George Li

Title: Football Operations Statistical Analyst.

Before his hiring in 2012, he spent five years as lead researcher at the NFL Network and also worked one year as a researcher at ESPN. A degree in business administration completes his background. Oakland is on the rise – how much influence does George have? Time will tell.

His fit in the organization is good – he sits with coaches in meetings but he is not a part of the coaching staff. Known to do great work and speaks the language of the coaches. Are the Raiders on the verge of contending? Not much credit is given to the analytics but we’ll see if that changes. The voice of the organization may change as the W’s start stacking up in Oakland.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers: Karim Kassam

Title: Analytics & Football Research Coordinator

“It’s the way all sports are going,” Kassam, a four-year assistant professor of social and decision sciences at CMU and a Harvard grad, told ESPN.com. “It’s the way the league is going. They decided it was time.”

Kassam works in the scouting department under general manager Kevin Colbert and will provide information for coaches during the season. One of his first projects is evaluating college players, “trying to dig up what numbers are going to help us predict who is going to be successful,” Kassam said. He knows very little about football at this point but the next 18 months will be critical. Word is that Mike Tomlin is not big on analytics so Karim’s fit into the coaching staff may not be natural due to several factors. Word on the street is that Tomlin gives the vibe that he doesn’t need to have validation of what he already knows. We’ll see how this goes in the upcoming season.

8) Philadelphia Eagles: Alec Halaby

Title: Special assistant to the general manager

Alec Halaby is the special assistant to the general manager hired in 2012 who now holds the position of Vice President of Football Operations and Strategy. Halaby is a 2009 Harvard Economics graduate. His fit within the organization is confusing to those on the inside. His rules are different from anyone else as he is not a coach or scout.  His influence away from the GM is questionable. He has seen a few coaches come and go but he remains – the depth of his connection with the new coaching staff is unknown.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars: Tony Kahn

Title: Senior Vice President, Football Technology & Analytics

With the player and coaching data crunched by many teams, Tony Khan’s department takes an analytic approach to fan experience and injury prevention. Perhaps that is why the Jags have limited the time rookies spend on the field in mini-camp. Influence most notably linked to his familial ties within the organizational structure. Many think a good year in Jacksonville is possible which will help his rank but many sources attribute the drafting of Luke Joeckel at #2 in 2013 to work with analytics. That does not sound good for a player who may move positions after 3 years in the NFL.

No question that Tony is not a “football guy” and his family ties would only seem to make it harder to work with him.

10) Buffalo Bills: Michael Lyons

Buffalo Bills formally created an analytics department in 2013 hiring Michael Lyons to head the department. While Lyons’ work will provide additional data to the football department it will be far from the sole determining factor in making football decisions.

“It’s another layer of information,” said Brandon. “Really it is just another spoke in the wheel of providing as much quality in depth information we can to make. The whole concept will be bringing the analytics element to everything that we do.”

This is my favorite description of the analytics fit within a football organization – a spoke in the tire. The Bills don’t seem to be moving in the right direction on the field or with things off the field. The recent injury to Shaq Lawson highlights their misfortune. Are analytics helping or just a spoke nobody looks at?

11) Indianapolis Colts: John Park

New kid on the block – just hired and his NFL experience is limited. He spent the last four months as an intern in the NFL Player Engagement department. Before that, he spent time with the Browns as a remote independent contractor, working as a game charter.

He graduated from Columbia after spending four years in the music industry, obtaining a degree in cultural anthropology. Park then worked as an actuary, consulting with Alvarez & Marshal’s and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Park has no title attached to his role, such as director or V.P. or anything like that. As a result, it’s unclear how much sway he’ll have with G.M. Ryan Grigson. This is probably “the guy at the end of the hall” until some time passes.

12) Tampa Bay Bucs: Tyler Oberly

Tyler Oberly comes to the Bucs from Houston, where he wrote for a site called TheSidelineView.com, applying an electric engineering background to football applications. He was a speaker at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference. Not much known here.

13) Atlanta Falcons: Todd Nielson

Title: Football Research and Development

Completely unknown, hence last on the list. Falcons claim to use analytics but outside of Blank talking about the big picture – the exactness of what they may be doing is very unknown.

Why do certain teams seem to make it work while others don’t? Several factors exist.

Football people know the how important an advantage is. Better personnel is an advantage. Home field is an advantage. Sound coaching and training is an advantage. The 1963 Chargers found an advantage for physical performance. Since deemed illegal.

Reminds me of a few beauties:

If you are not cheating, you’re not trying and it’s only cheating if you get caught.

Win if you can, lose if you must but always, always cheat.

Back on topic….

Analytics presents an opportunity for an advantage in the game of football. Advantages are good. Organizations see this clearly but the issue deals with the people involved. Football coaches can generally be described as a group that doesn’t enjoy balancing the checkbook. Relationship and people oriented – creative: right brained. Computer science people: left brained. (More here) It is the successful mix of these groups that will ultimately make analytics successful.

These two groups of people are not usually drawn to each other… extrapolate out in a football office where winning and losing determines job status. The analytics guy needs to be in the same boat as the coaches if you want a good working relationship. That is just a fact. Everybody LIKES winning but people NEED jobs. Most memorable quote from my time in college coaching: “You want to win enough but not too much or they’ll keep expecting it too often.”

One is that a key element involves the difference between correlation and causation. Lightly speaking, correlation refers to any of a broad class of statistical relationships involving dependence. Causality is the link of one process (the cause) with another (the effect), where the first is understood to be partly responsible for the second, and the second is dependent on the first. More food for thought can be found in the phrase “correlation does not imply causation.”

Find an analytics guy who knows football a little bit and this will have a chance to work because football people don’t really know analytics at all. Analytics people must be able to meet football people in the football environment. The attraction is what happens between the white lines not on a computer screen.